[SMM Analysis] China's aluminum foil exports in 2019 were 1.2951 million tons, a slight increase of 0.72 percent over the same period last year.

SMM, March 1: customs data show that China's exports of aluminum foil totaled 1.2951 million tons in 2019, a small increase of 0.72 percent over the same period last year (according to the 8-digit customs code: 76071110, 76071120, 76071190, 76071900, 76072000).

Figure 1. 2009-2019 aluminum foil export volume and year-on-year trend

Data sources: China Customs, SMM

Figure 2. Comparison of monthly export trade volume of aluminum foil from 2017 to 2019

Data sources: China Customs, SMM

The export growth rate of aluminum foil in 2019 was 9.8 percentage points lower than that of last year. On the one hand, the impact of Shanghai-Lun ratio on aluminum foil was slightly weaker than that of plate and strip, and the export tax rebate was reduced from 16% to 13% in 2019, affecting the export profits of traders. In addition, overseas demand has also weakened.

Figure 3. Export trade volume of tariff code number 2017-2019

Data sources: China Customs, SMM

According to the tax code number, the total export of products under tax code 76071110 in 2019 (unprocessed unlined aluminum foil, thickness ≤ 0.007mm) is 275000 tons, down 5.25% from the same period last year. 76071120 products (unlined aluminum foil, 0.007mm < thickness ≤ 0.001 mm) exported a total of 76000 tons, down 10.14% from the same period last year; products under 76072000 (lined aluminum foil) exported a total of 208000 tons, down 5.25% from the same period last year; 76071190 Down products (unprocessed unlined aluminum foil, 0.01mm < thickness ≤ 0.2 mm) exported a total of 465000 tons, an increase of 5.05% over the same period last year; products under 76071900 (other unlined aluminum foil) exported a total of 271000 tons, an increase of 8.94% over the same period last year. On the whole, the export volume of double zero foil in 2019 is lower than that in 2018, but the export volume of single zero foil increases steadily.

Figure 4. Distribution of China's aluminum foil exporting countries in 2019

Data sources: China Customs, SMM

China's aluminum foil exports to 203 countries and regions in 2019, with the top 10 countries accounting for 53% of the total export volume, followed by India, Thailand, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico and Malaysia. In recent years, countries and organizations have continued to carry out anti-dumping or countervailing measures on China's aluminum foil exports (see [SMM analysis] Indonesia imposes very limited protective tariffs on its imports of aluminum foil, [SMM analysis] combing and summarizing the anti-dumping countries and organizations of China's aluminum foil products, [SMM analysis] the Alcoa issued a white paper entitled "targeted Trade Law Enforcement effect: first Anniversary of Aluminum foil Anti-dumping and countervailing sanctions"). Including the United States, Mexico, India, the European Union, Turkey and so on, China's aluminum foil enterprises still need to be vigilant in export business, try overseas multi-point layout and improve the competitiveness of their products.

The weakening of the Shanghai-Lun ratio at the end of 2019 does not significantly stimulate orders in the new year. The weakness of the overseas economy has become the leading factor in the decline in the growth rate of aluminum foil exports, and it is expected that aluminum foil exports will not improve in 2020. After a period of rapid growth, aluminum foil exports will continue to stabilize next year, year-on-year growth is expected to be the same as this year, but the marginal change in demand in overseas end markets is still the main factor to check and balance aluminum foil exports.

(SMM Li Hao 021-5166 6863)